Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Dow 11,000???

Dear Readers,

I am seeing more and more signs that the market is still heading higher. My contention is that the markets will head higher over the next couple of weeks, have a pullback, then soar to new 2009 highs. After the latter move that will be the beginning of a typical bear market pattern of lower highs and lower lows for possibly most of 2010. The good news is we likely will have a 10% upside move first.

The bear market will not look like 2008. I believe it will resemble 2004. The technical setup is very similar. However, I believe the potential for a bubble bursting in the future is very real. The eventual unwinding of the "carry trade" will be disastrous for all asset classes. The timing of this, for now, is uncertain, but be sure that I will be looking for the fundamental symptoms and the technical indications.

As a side note, GOOG is heading to $700 and AAPL to $250 by March 2010.

Thanks and Good Trading,

Tim Winters

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